📊 Weekly Forex Outlook & Market Forecast | CPI, Fed Speeches, Gold & USD Trends (Week of Feb 22–28, 2026)
Focus Keyword: Weekly Forex Outlook
Secondary Keywords: forex market forecast, CPI impact on USD, gold price forecast, USD index outlook, economic calendar this week
Meta Description: Weekly Forex Outlook for Feb 22–28, 2026. Get the latest CPI expectations, Fed speeches, gold forecast, USD index outlook, key support & resistance levels, and major volatility drivers.
Global markets head into the final week of February with elevated volatility expectations as inflation data, labor market indicators, oil inventories, and central bank commentary converge. This Weekly Forex Outlook combines macro fundamentals, economic calendar highlights, and technical analysis to help traders prepare for potential market-moving events.
📅 1. Economic Calendar — Key Market Catalysts This Week
The economic calendar this week includes several high-impact releases capable of driving USD, EUR, JPY, CAD, and commodity pairs.
🇺🇸 US Unemployment Claims
Released weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor, initial jobless claims provide a real-time snapshot of labor market health.
🔗 Official source: Check here
📌 Market Impact:
- Rising claims → potential USD weakness, risk-off sentiment.
- Falling claims → stronger dollar, higher yields.
Labor data directly influences inflation expectations, which in turn guide the policy stance of the Federal Reserve.
🇨🇦 Canadian Current Account
A key indicator of Canada’s trade balance and external demand.
🔗 Official source (Statistics Canada):
📌 FX Implications:
- Surplus → CAD strength (especially vs USD).
- Deficit → potential pressure on USD/CAD.
🇩🇪 German Final GDP (q/q)
Germany remains the largest economy in the Eurozone, making its GDP readings critical for euro sentiment.
🔗 Official data (Destatis): Details Here
Stronger growth tends to support EUR pairs, particularly EUR/USD and EUR/GBP.
🇯🇵 Japan Core CPI (y/y)
Inflation trends near the Bank of Japan’s target influence speculation about yield curve control adjustments.
🔗 Official data (Statistics Bureau of Japan): Visit website
Higher core inflation may strengthen JPY through rising yield expectations.
🛢 US Crude Oil Inventories
Published weekly by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
🔗 Official EIA data: Check weekly reports here
📌 Oil inventories impact:
- WTI crude prices
- Energy stocks
- CAD and AUD pairs
Oil drawdowns typically support CAD, while builds may weaken it.
🏦 2. Central Bank Watch — Fed & ECB Commentary
4
Markets will also react to commentary from policymakers.
🇺🇸 Federal Reserve
Speeches from FOMC members may shape expectations around interest rates and inflation management.
🔗 Fed official site:
https://www.federalreserve.gov
If officials sound hawkish, USD strength could accelerate. A dovish tone may support equities and gold.
🇪🇺 European Central Bank
Remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde could influence euro volatility.
🔗 ECB speeches calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/html/index.en.html
A cautious growth outlook may weigh on EUR/USD, while inflation concerns could support the euro.
📊 3. Technical Analysis — Key Levels to Watch
4
📈 EUR/USD
- Support: 1.0800
- Resistance: 1.0950
- Bias: Neutral-to-bullish above 1.0950
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
- Support: $1975
- Resistance: $2020
- Bias: Bullish above $2000 psychological level
Gold remains sensitive to real yields and inflation expectations.
💵 USD Index (DXY)
- Support: 102.50
- Resistance: 104.00
- Bias: Range-bound pending inflation clarity
🇯🇵 USD/JPY
- Support: 148.50
- Resistance: 150.00
- Bias: Neutral, volatility tied to Japan CPI and US yields
📈 4. Weekly Forecast
🕒 Short-Term (1–3 Days)
Expect sharp intraday moves during high-impact releases, especially unemployment claims and oil inventories.
🗓 Medium-Term (1–4 Weeks)
Inflation trajectory and central bank guidance will likely determine directional bias for USD and gold.
🌍 Long-Term Insight
Monetary policy divergence between the U.S., Eurozone, and Japan remains a major structural driver for forex markets in 2026.
🧠 Trading Strategy Notes
- Avoid entering trades minutes before high-impact data releases.
- Monitor bond yields as leading indicators for currency strength.
- Use confluence: combine macro catalysts with technical levels.
🔎 Why This Weekly Forex Outlook Matters
The forex market remains highly reactive to macroeconomic shifts. With inflation trends, labor data, and oil supply dynamics shaping sentiment, this week presents opportunities — but also heightened risk.
Bookmark this page — it will be updated weekly with fresh forecasts, economic data, and technical levels.